Maximizing crime prevention through large-scale implementation of hot spot policing requires a more refined understanding of how to calibrate police activity across high and low-risk areas. This study investigates these issues based on the experience of a large urban police agency that substantially reduced proactive activities across a large area due to resource cutbacks while also shifting a larger share of its declining proactive work into prioritized micro hot spots. Time series models were used to estimate the effects of these changes on crime-related calls in hot spots and non-hot spot areas. Hot spots required higher levels of proactivity (expressed as rates per day or per crime) to control crime, and serious crime rose in these locations following modest reductions in proactivity. In areas outside hot spots, minor and property crimes rose, but only after reductions of one-half to two-thirds in proactive work. Violence was unaffected in these areas, and they did not experience accelerated growth in crime relative to prioritized hot spots. These results help to illuminate minimum levels of police activity that may be necessary to control crime in places of varying risk. They also suggest that police can reduce proactive work by substantial amounts in lower risk areas to place more emphasis on hot spots. Better understanding of these issues is central to widespread, systematic operationalization of hot spot policing as a means to reduce crime across large areas.

通过大规模实施热点警务来最大程度地预防犯罪，需要对如何在高风险和低风险地区校准警察活动有更精细的了解。这项研究基于大型城市警察机构的经验来调查这些问题，该机构由于资源缩减而在很大程度上减少了大范围的主动活动，同时还将其下降的主动工作的较大份额转移到了优先的微观热点地区。时间序列模型用于估计这些变化对热点和非热点区域中与犯罪相关的呼叫的影响。热点需要较高水平的主动性（以每天或每宗犯罪的速率表示）才能控制犯罪，而在这些地区，由于主动性有所降低，严重犯罪率上升了。在热点以外的地区，未成年人和财产犯罪上升，但只有在积极工作减少了一半到三分之二之后。暴力在这些地区不受影响，相对于优先热点，他们的犯罪没有加速增长。这些结果有助于阐明最低风险的警务活动水平，这对于在风险程度不同的地方控制犯罪可能是必需的。他们还建议，警察可以在较低风险的地区大幅度减少主动工作，将重点更多地放在热点上。更好地了解这些问题对于热点警务的广泛，系统的操作化至关重要，这是减少大范围犯罪的一种手段。这些结果有助于阐明最低风险的警务活动水平，这对于控制在各种风险地点的犯罪可能是必要的。他们还建议，警察可以在较低风险的地区大幅度减少主动工作，将重点更多地放在热点上。更好地了解这些问题对于热点警务的广泛，系统的操作化至关重要，这是减少大范围犯罪的一种手段。这些结果有助于阐明最低风险的警务活动水平，这对于在风险程度不同的地方控制犯罪可能是必需的。他们还建议，警察可以在较低风险的地区大幅度减少主动工作，将重点更多地放在热点上。更好地了解这些问题对于热点警务的广泛，系统的操作化至关重要，这是减少大范围犯罪的一种手段。