Coordinated development of agricultural water resources and the socio-economy in Shanxi province considering uncertainty*,Irrigation and Drainage

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Coordinated development of agricultural water resources and the socio-economy in Shanxi province considering uncertainty*
Irrigation and Drainage ( IF 1.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-16 , DOI: 10.1002/ird.2581
Gaiqiang Yang ₁ , Lirui Ding ₁ , Lijuan Huo ₁ , Yuxian Hu ₁

Affiliation

The conflict between agricultural water resources and socio-economic development is a global problem. Accurate evaluation of coordinated development of agricultural water resources and socio-economic factors and risk mitigation is necessary for sustainable development under uncertainty. In order to accurately evaluate the coordination between agricultural water resources and socio-economic development under uncertainty, an evaluation method was applied in this study by coupling an analytic hierarchy process method with an uncertainty analysis method. The evaluation method, including selection of criteria, data collection, determination of indicator weights, evaluation of coordinated development, prediction of parameters, and judgment of coordinated development state, has been proposed to study the degree of coordinated development. To deal with uncertainties, the Monte Carlo method and the fuzzy set method were used. The overall method was demonstrated to solve a real-world evaluation problem in Shanxi province, China. Results showed that degrees of coordinated development were (0.7, 0.8) for most of the cities in Shanxi in 2015, indicating that the state of coordinated development was intermediate. In 2020, the degree of coordinated development was expected to markedly decrease, the state of coordinated development to be minimal, and agricultural water resources utilization to lag behind socio-economic development.

更新日期：2021-02-16

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