While the effects of climate (long‐term, prevailing weather) on species abundance, range and genetic diversity have been widely studied, short‐term, localized variations in atmospheric conditions (i.e., weather) can also rapidly alter species’ geographical ranges and population sizes, but little is known about how they affect genetic diversity. We investigated the relationship between weather and range‐wide genetic diversity in a marsupial, Bettongia gaimardi, using dynamic species distribution models (SDMs). Genetic diversity was lower in parts of the range where the weather‐based SDM predicted high variability in probability of B. gaimardi occurrence during 1950–2009. This is probably an effect of lower population sizes and extinction–recolonization cycles in places with highly variable weather. Spatial variation in genetic diversity was also better predicted by mean probabilities of B. gaimardi occurrence from weather‐ than climate‐based SDMs. Our results illustrate the importance of weather in driving population dynamics and species distributions on decadal timescales and thereby in affecting genetic diversity. Modelling the links between changing weather patterns, species distributions and genetic diversity will allow researchers to better forecast biological impacts of climate change.

中文翻译：

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天气变化对塔斯马尼亚bettongs遗传多样性格局的影响

尽管已经广泛研究了气候（长期，盛行的天气）对物种丰富度，范围和遗传多样性的影响，但大气条件（即天气）的短期，局部变化也可以迅速改变物种的地理范围和种群大小，但对它们如何影响遗传多样性知之甚少。我们使用动态物种分布模型（SDM），调查了有袋动物Bettongia gaimardi中天气与范围广泛的遗传多样性之间的关系。在基于天气的SDM预测B. gaimardi概率高变异性的范围内，部分地区的遗传多样性较低在1950-2009年期间发生。这可能是由于天气变化多端的地区人口减少和灭绝-再定殖周期的影响。与天气相关的SDM相比，天气和气候变化引起的B. gaimardi发生的平均概率还可以更好地预测遗传多样性的空间变异。我们的结果说明了天气在十年时间尺度上驱动种群动态和物种分布并从而影响遗传多样性的重要性。通过对不断变化的天气模式，物种分布和遗传多样性之间的联系进行建模，研究人员可以更好地预测气候变化对生物的影响。