In OECD countries over the period 1980–2017, countries with lower debt-to-GDP ratios responded to financial distress with much more expansionary fiscal policy and suffered much less severe aftermaths. Two lines of evidence together suggest that the relationship between the debt ratio and the policy response is driven partly by problems with sovereign market access, but even more so by the choices of domestic and international policymakers. First, although there is some relationship between more direct measures of market access and the fiscal response to distress, incorporating the direct measures attenuates the link between the debt ratio and the policy response only slightly. Second, contemporaneous accounts of the policymaking process in episodes of major financial distress show a number of cases where shifts to austerity were driven by problems with market access, but at least as many where the shifts resulted from policymakers’ choices despite an absence of difficulties with market access. These results may have implications for the conduct of policy both in normal times and in the wake of a financial crisis.

中文翻译：

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财政空间与金融危机的后果：其重要性和原因

在1980-2017年间的经合组织国家中，债务与国内生产总值比率较低的国家以更大的扩张性财政政策应对财务困境，而遭受的后果却不那么严重。有两条证据表明，债务比率与政策反应之间的关系部分是由主权市场准入问题驱动的，而国内和国际政策制定者的选择则更是如此。首先，尽管市场准入的更直接措施与对困境的财政反应之间存在某种关系，但将直接措施纳入其中只会使债务比率与政策反应之间的联系稍微减弱。第二，在重大财务危机中同时描述决策过程的情况表明，在许多情况下，紧缩政策是由市场准入问题驱动的，但至少有很多情况是尽管缺乏市场准入的困难，但决策者的选择还是导致了紧缩政策的转变。 。这些结果可能会影响正常时期和金融危机之后的政策执行。