ABSTRACT:Many technological innovations replace workers with machines. But this capital-labor substitution need not reduce aggregate labor demand, because it simultaneously induces four countervailing responses: own-industry output effects; cross-industry input-output effects; between-industry shifts; and final demand effects. We quantify these channels using four decades of harmonized cross-country and industry data, whereby we measure automation as industry-level movements in total factor productivity that are common across countries. We find that automation displaces employment and reduces labor's share of value added in the industries where it originates (a direct effect). In the case of employment, these own-industry losses are reversed by indirect gains in customer industries and induced increases in aggregate demand. By contrast, own-industry labor share losses are not recouped elsewhere. Our framework can account for a substantial fraction of the reallocation of employment across industries and the aggregate fall in the labor share over the last three decades. It does not, however, explain why the labor share fell more rapidly during the 2000s.

中文翻译：

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自动化劳动力共享替代吗？生产率增长，就业和劳动份额

摘要：许多技术创新用机器代替了工人。但是这种资本劳动替代并不需要减少总的劳动力需求，因为它同时引起了四个抵消作用的响应：自身工业产出效应；跨行业的投入产出效应；行业间转移；和最终需求效应。我们使用四十年的统一的跨国和行业数据对这些渠道进行量化，从而将自动化衡量为各个国家之间普遍存在的全要素生产率的行业水平变动。我们发现，自动化取代了就业，并降低了劳动力在其起源的行业中所占的增值份额（直接影响）。就就业而言，这些自身行业的损失可以通过客户行业的间接收益来抵消，并导致总需求的增加。相比之下，自己行业的劳动份额损失无法在其他地方弥补。我们的框架可以解释各行业就业重新分配的很大一部分，并且过去三十年来劳动力比例总体下降。但是，它并没有解释为什么2000年代劳动力份额下降得更快。