We discuss the changes in the new 2011-12 base year series of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) to ask, whether the new series has improved our under-standing of the growth in the manufacturing sector. We develop a simple framework to separately estimate the contribution of value and volume based commodities in the growth of the manufacturing index. We find that growth in value based commodities contributes significantly in moving the index in either direction and that high growth in value based commodities coincides with periods of low inflation. Findings also show that movements in the IIP Index are increasingly influenced by the trends of WPI as growth in value based commodities may inflate or become subdued, given the fall or rise in the WPI index. As a case study of value based commodities, we compare the trends of IIP (Pharmaceuticals) and real Net Sales of firms in the pharmaceuticals sector. Our findings show that real Net Sales and IIP have contrasting trends. Such divergent trends between two measures of industrial activity raise crucial questions on the representativeness of the IIP.

中文翻译：

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新的 2011-12 IIP 系列对印度制造业有何看法？

我们讨论工业生产指数 (IIP) 新的 2011-12 基年系列的变化，询问新系列是否提高了我们对制造业增长的理解。我们开发了一个简单的框架来分别估计基于价值和数量的商品对制造业指数增长的贡献。我们发现基于价值的商品的增长对指数向任一方向的移动做出了重大贡献，并且基于价值的商品的高增长与低通胀时期相吻合。调查结果还表明，鉴于 WPI 指数的下降或上升，基于价值的商品的增长可能会膨胀或减弱，因此 IIP 指数的变动越来越受 WPI 趋势的影响。作为基于价值的商品的案例研究，我们比较了制药行业公司的 IIP（制药）和实际净销售额的趋势。我们的研究结果表明，实际净销售额和 IIP 具有相反的趋势。两种工业活动衡量指标之间的这种差异趋势对国际投资头寸的代表性提出了关键问题。