Purpose This paper aims to propose a technique based on cognitive assessments to quantify identified operational risks from the perspective of container shipping or logistics system administrators. The results derived from the risk quantification could be used to prioritize risks as well as support the decision-making process in risk prevention and mitigation. Design/methodology/approach This paper identified container shipping operational risks (CSORs) from a logistics perspective. A multivariate risk evaluation mechanism by fuzzy rules Bayesian network (FRBN) was established. An improved two-level parameter set based on the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) was used to support the input extraction process. By feeding cognitive assessments into the model, the identified risks are evaluated based on their utility values. An illustration example and a sensitivity analysis were carried out to justify and validate the proposed model. Findings The highest positions in the prioritized list of CSORs in the case study are dominated by risks in the physical flow with the first three are piracy and terrorism, force majeure and port congestion. The results derived from the case study with the satisfaction of all pre-defined axioms proved the feasibility and illustrated the functionality of the proposed risk assessment and prioritization technique. Originality/value Controlling risk is irrefutably a significant issue of container shipping and logistics management because of the inconsistency of risk definitions and the involvement of uncertainties. The proposed risk evaluation mechanism and the identified list of CSORs could be beneficial in system management, decision-making and reliability performance.

中文翻译：

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使用认知评估技术对集装箱运输系统中的操作风险进行优先级排序

目的本文旨在提出一种基于认知评估的技术，以从集装箱运输或物流系统管理员的角度量化已识别的操作风险。风险量化得出的结果可用于确定风险的优先级，并支持风险预防和缓解过程中的决策过程。设计/方法/方法本文从物流的角度确定了集装箱运输的操作风险（CSOR）。建立了基于模糊规则贝叶斯网络（FRBN）的多元风险评估机制。基于故障模式和影响分析（FMEA）的改进的两级参数集用于支持输入提取过程。通过将认知评估输入模型中，可以基于已识别的风险的效用值对其进行评估。进行了举例说明和敏感性分析，以证明和验证所提出的模型。调查结果在案例研究中，按优先顺序排列的CSOR列表中的最高职位主要是人身流动风险，前三个是海盗和恐怖主义，不可抗力和港口拥堵。从案例研究中获得的所有预定义公理都满意的结果证明了可行性，并说明了所提出的风险评估和优先排序技术的功能。原创性/价值由于风险定义的不一致和不确定性的存在，控制风险不可避免地成为集装箱运输和物流管理的重要问题。拟议的风险评估机制和确定的CSOR清单可能有助于系统管理，