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Electoral Externalities in Federations – Evidence from German Opinion Polls
Kyklos ( IF 1.796 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-16 , DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12222
Xenia Frei 1 , Sebastian Langer 2 , Robert Lehmann 3 , Felix Roesel 4
Affiliation  

Party performance in state and federal elections is highly interdependent. Federal elections impact regional voting dynamics and vice versa (electoral externalities). We quantify the extent of simultaneous electoral externalities between two layers of government. We apply vector autoregressions with predetermined variables to unique opinion poll data for the German state of Berlin and the federal level in Germany. State voting intentions for the state and for the federal parliament are the endogenous variables; the federal election trend is treated as predetermined. Our results suggest that shocks in federal parliament voting intention impact state parliament voting intention, but – as a new finding – to the same extent also vice versa. Externalities account for around 10% to 30% of variation at the other level of government. The effects differ across parties. Electoral externalities are less pronounced for the conservative party, but increase in times of government. The opposite holds true for left-wing parties.

中文翻译:

联邦选举的外部性——来自德国民意调查的证据

政党在州和联邦选举中的表现是高度相互依存的。联邦选举会影响区域投票动态,反之亦然(选举外部性)。我们量化了两层政府之间同时发生的选举外部性的程度。我们将带有预定变量的向量自回归应用于德国柏林州和德国联邦层面的独特民意调查数据。州和联邦议会的州投票意向是内生变量;联邦选举趋势被视为预先确定的。我们的结果表明,联邦议会投票意向的冲击会影响州议会的投票意向,但作为一项新发现,反之亦然。在其他级别的政府中,外部性约占变化的 10% 到 30%。影响因各方而异。保守党的选举外部性不那么明显,但执政次数增加。左翼政党的情况正好相反。
更新日期:2020-01-16
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