After reaching a plateau, the production of oil reservoirs starts to decline, which substantially determines their life expectancy. Declining production data from three 58- to 71-yr-old oil pools in Alberta, Canada, have been documented and analyzed to show and predict their life span. Two declining phases of oil production can be distinguished: a short 4–11-yr substantially declining phase and a long 23–35-yr gradually declining phase. Well-fitted power regressions of the two declining phases of the pools have been observed with high correlation coefficients of 0.95–0.99 and used to forecast future annual oil production for the next 30 yr, yielding projected life spans of at least 88 to 101 yr. These pools have been producing oil at high water cuts of greater than 0.9 for 30–38 yr, currently more than 0.980 and 0.996, but still have potential to continue to deliver for at least another 30 yr. Production data from two pools indicate that 11% of original oil in place and 16%–26% of cumulative oil output were produced at a high water cut of greater than 0.9. These observation results can be used to judge other similar reef oil pools’ future production potential. This study provides a physical example to test the Hubbert curve and implies that the Hubbert curve should provide only the minimum future ultimate recoveries and the shortest future production times.

中文翻译：

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油库的寿命：以加拿大艾伯塔省的三个旧礁池为例

达到高原后，储油层的产量开始下降，这在很大程度上决定了它们的预期寿命。加拿大艾伯塔省三个58至71岁的油藏的生产数据下降，已被记录在案并进行了分析，以显示和预测其寿命。可以区分出石油生产的两个下降阶段：一个短暂的4-11年的大幅下降阶段和一个较长的23-35年的逐渐下降阶段。观察到两个下降阶段的油藏拟合效果良好，相关系数高，为0.95–0.99，可用于预测未来30年的未来年石油产量，预计使用寿命至少为88至101年。这些油藏在30-38年的高含水率大于0.9的情况下一直在生产石油，目前超过0.980和0.996，但仍有潜力继续交付至少30年。来自两个油藏的生产数据表明，在高含水率大于0.9的情况下，已生产出的原始石油的11％和累计石油产量的16％–26％。这些观察结果可用于判断其他类似礁石油藏的未来生产潜力。该研究提供了测试Hubbert曲线的物理示例，并暗示Hubbert曲线应仅提供最小的最终最终采收率和最短的未来生产时间。这些观察结果可用于判断其他类似礁石油藏的未来生产潜力。该研究提供了测试Hubbert曲线的物理示例，并暗示Hubbert曲线应仅提供最小的最终最终采收率和最短的未来生产时间。这些观察结果可用于判断其他类似礁石油藏的未来生产潜力。该研究提供了测试Hubbert曲线的物理示例，并暗示Hubbert曲线应仅提供最小的最终最终采收率和最短的未来生产时间。