We contribute to the literature examining inconsistent analyst forecast revisions. While prior research suggests inconsistent analyst forecasts are less accurate, we find this result is sensitive to both the definition and direction of inconsistency. We define consistency relative to each analyst’s own forecast error and find the relation between analyst characteristics and the likelihood of issuing an inconsistent forecast differs depending on the direction of the revision. Specifically, less accurate analysts are more likely to issue an inconsistent positive revision and have higher future accuracy than their consistent counterparts. Our results suggest that analysts derive a benefit (better future accuracy) from issuing upward forecast revisions in the period immediately following an earnings announcement regardless of the resulting forecast pattern.

中文翻译：

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分析师偏见和预测一致性

我们为研究不一致的分析师预测修订的文献做出了贡献。尽管先前的研究表明不一致的分析师预测不太准确，但我们发现此结果对不一致的定义和方向都很敏感。我们定义了相对于每个分析师自己的预测误差的一致性，并发现了分析师特征与发布不一致的预测的可能性之间的关系，具体取决于修订的方向。特别是，准确性较差的分析师比一致的分析师更有可能发表不一致的肯定修订，并且未来的准确性更高。