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Time-inconsistent health behavior and its impact on aging and longevity
Journal of Health Economics ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102440
Holger Strulik 1 , Katharina Werner 1
Affiliation  

We integrate time-inconsistent decision making due to hyperbolic discounting into a gerontologically founded life cycle model with endogenous aging and longevity. Individuals can slow down aging and postpone death by health investments and by reducing unhealthy consumption, conceptualized as smoking. We show that individuals continuously revise their original plans to smoke less and invest more in their health. Consequently, they accumulate health deficits faster and die earlier than originally planned. This fundamental health consequence of time-inconsistency has not been addressed in the literature so far. Because death is endogenous, any attempt to establish the time-consistent first-best solution by manipulating the first order conditions through (sin-) taxes and subsidies is bound to fail. We calibrate the model with U.S. data for an average American in the year 2012 and estimate that time-inconsistent health behavior causes a loss of about 4 years of life. We show how price policy can nudge individuals to behave more healthy such that they actually realize the longevity and value of life planned at age 20.



中文翻译:

时间不一致的健康行为及其对衰老和长寿的影响

我们将由于双曲线贴现导致的时间不一致决策整合到具有内源性衰老和长寿的老年学建立的生命周期模型中。个人可以通过健康投资和减少不健康的消费(如吸烟)来减缓衰老和推迟死亡。我们表明,个人不断修改他们原来的计划,以减少吸烟并加大对健康的投资。因此,他们比原计划更快地积累健康缺陷并更早死亡。迄今为止,文献中尚未涉及时间不一致的这种基本健康后果。由于死亡是内生的,任何通过(罪恶)税收和补贴来操纵一阶条件来建立时间一致的第一最佳解决方案的尝试都注定会失败。我们用美国校准模型 2012 年平均美国人的数据,并估计时间不一致的健康行为会导致大约 4 年的生命损失。我们展示了价格政策如何推动个人表现得更健康,从而让他们真正意识到 20 岁时计划的寿命和价值。

更新日期:2021-02-26
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