This study explores the relationship between the uptake of credit and household vulnerability in rural Vietnam in terms of two main vulnerability indicators—vulnerability as expected poverty (VEP) and vulnerability to food poverty (VFP)—using data from the 2012 Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey. VEP and VFP are examined under two decompositions, idiosyncratic vulnerability and covariate vulnerability, by constructing a multilevel structure model. The analysis accounts for two critical problems (selection bias and endogeneity) through an endogenous switching regression model. Generally, the results indicate the positive impacts of credit uptake on poverty alleviation and VEP reduction. Nevertheless, credit uptake increases VFP. Noticeably, compared to other categories of credit, productive credit is found to be more pronounced in reducing either idiosyncratic or covariate vulnerability. There is also suggestive evidence that although credit has positive effects overall, taking on either formal or semiformal credit has negative impacts on both poverty and vulnerability reduction. Hence, towards formal credit, government policies should concentrate more on credit costs and support preferential loan rates for poor rural households for productive purposes.

这项研究使用2012年越南获取资源家庭的数据，从两个主要脆弱性指标（脆弱性作为预期贫困（VEP）和食物贫困性（VFP））探讨了越南农村地区信贷吸收与家庭脆弱性之间的关系。民意调查。通过构建多级结构模型，可以对VEP和VFP进行两个分解，即特质漏洞和协变量漏洞。该分析通过内生转换回归模型解决了两个关键问题（选择偏差和内生性）。总体而言，结果表明信贷使用对减轻贫困和减少VEP产生了积极影响。然而，信贷吸收增加了VFP。值得注意的是，与其他类别的信用相比，发现生产性信用在减少特质或协变量脆弱性方面更为显着。还有暗示性的证据表明，尽管信贷总体上具有积极作用，但接受正式或半正式信贷对贫困和减少脆弱性都具有负面影响。因此，在正式信贷方面，政府政策应更多地集中在信贷成本上，并为生产性目的支持贫困农村家庭的优惠贷款利率。