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What Does Really Drive Consumer Confidence?
Social Indicators Research ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-13 , DOI: 10.1007/s11205-021-02626-6
Simona Malovaná 1 , Martin Hodula 1, 2 , Jan Frait 1, 3
Affiliation  

We construct a novel index of households’ macroeconomic environment (HOME) based on the data from 22 high-income European countries between 2002 Q1 and 2018 Q4. The resulting index is in line with the broad features of the countries’ business and financial cycles and captures well households’ perception of their underlying economic situation. We discuss joint properties of the HOME index and the widely employed survey-based consumer confidence indicator. We show that households’ expectations are tightly linked to current macroeconomic conditions. This finding echoes the literature linking consumer attitudes and actual economic developments. The HOME index also reflects the importance of asset prices and lending conditions for households’ behavior. In a single-country case study, we provide empirical evidence that links the proposed index to new credit extended to households. The evidence suggests that households need a longer period of good macroeconomic conditions to decide to take on a mortgage than they do in the case of a consumer loan.



中文翻译:

是什么真正推动了消费者的信心?

我们根据 2002 年第一季度至 2018 年第四季度期间来自 22 个高收入欧洲国家的数据构建了一个新的家庭宏观经济环境指数(HOME)。由此产生的指数符合各国商业和金融周期的广泛特征,并很好地反映了家庭对其潜在经济状况的看法。我们讨论了 HOME 指数和广泛使用的基于调查的消费者信心指标的联合属性。我们表明,家庭的预期与当前的宏观经济状况密切相关。这一发现与将消费者态度与实际经济发展联系起来的文献相呼应。HOME 指数还反映了资产价格和贷款条件对家庭行为的重要性。在一个单一国家的案例研究中,我们提供了经验证据,将提议的指数与向家庭提供的新信贷联系起来。有证据表明,与消费贷款相比,家庭需要更长的宏观经济状况良好的时期才能决定进行抵押贷款。

更新日期:2021-02-15
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