Changes in the timing of extreme precipitation have important ramifications for public safety and storm water management, but it has not received much attention in relation to flooding. This study analyzed the changes in the timing of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin and projected its future changes for the period 2020–2099. The study also quantified the influences of changes in the timing of peak flows on lake floods based on a hydrodynamic model. The results showed that peak rainfall in the Poyang Lake basin had occurred on later dates during the period 1960–2012, and it is this change that caused a delay in peak streamflows from five rivers in the lake basin. Moreover, the effects of these changes are expected to be more prominent during 2020–2099; for example, the rate of delay will be about 2.0 days per 10 years both for peak rainfall and for streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin. The hydrodynamic simulation further showed that a delay of peak streamflows from five rivers would significantly increase the flood level and outflow of the lake and also prolong the duration of floods. These results indicate that the risk of floods in Poyang Lake is likely to increase in the future, therefore making flood control in this region more challenging.

极端降雨时间的变化对公共安全和雨水管理有重要影响，但在洪水方面并未引起太多关注。这项研究分析了the阳湖流域极端降水时间的变化，并预测了其在2020-2099年期间的未来变化。这项研究还基于流体动力学模型量化了峰值流量时间变化对湖泊洪水的影响。结果表明，yang阳湖流域的峰值降雨发生在1960年至2012年期间的较晚日期，正是这一变化导致了湖盆五条河流的峰值水流延迟。此外，这些变化的影响预计将在2020-2099年间更加显着。例如，延迟率约为2。每10年0天，peak阳湖流域的峰值降雨量和流量均如此。流体动力学模拟进一步表明，从五条河流中流出的峰值水流将大大增加洪水位和湖泊出水量，并延长洪水持续时间。这些结果表明，将来Lake阳湖的洪灾风险可能会增加，因此使该地区的洪灾控制更具挑战性。