Aim We use ecological niche models and environmental stratification of palaeoclimate to reconstruct the changing range of the lion (Panthera leo) during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Location The modern (early 21st century) range of the lion extends from southern Africa to the western Indian Subcontinent, yet through the 20th century this range has been drastically reduced in extent and become increasingly fragmented as a result of human impacts. Methods We use Global Environmental Stratification with MaxEnt ecological niche models to map environmental suitability of the lion under current and palaeoclimatic scenarios. By examining modelled lion range in terms of categorical environmental strata, we characterise suitable bioclimatic conditions for the lion in a descriptive manner. Results We find that lion habitat suitability has reduced throughout the Holocene, controlled by pluvial/interpluvial cycles. The aridification of the Sahara 6ka dramatically reduced lion range throughout North Africa. The association of Saharan aridification with the development of pastoralism and the growth of sedentary communities, who practised animal husbandry, would have placed additional and lasting anthropogenic pressures on the lion. Main Conclusions This research highlights the need to integrate the full effects of the fluctuating vegetation and desiccation of the Sahara into palaeoclimatic models, and provides a starting point for further continental-scale analyses of shifting faunal ranges through North Africa and the Near East during the Holocene. This scale of ecological niche modelling does not explain the current pattern of genetic variation in the lion, and we conclude that narrow but substantial physical barriers, such as rivers, have likely played a major role in population vicariance throughout the Late Pleistocene.

中文翻译：

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一个衰落的王国：以全球环境分层为模型的狮子（Panthera leo）的全新世范围收缩

目的利用生态位模型和古气候环境分层重建狮子（Panthera leo）在晚更新世和全新世的变化范围。位置 狮子的现代（21 世纪初）分布范围从南部非洲延伸到印度次大陆西部，但到了 20 世纪，由于人类的影响，这个范围的范围已大大缩小，并且变得越来越支离破碎。方法 我们使用具有 MaxEnt 生态位模型的全球环境分层来绘制狮子在当前和古气候情景下的环境适应性。通过根据分类环境层检查模拟的狮子范围，我们以描述性的方式描述了狮子的合适生物气候条件。结果我们发现狮子栖息地的适宜性在整个全新世都降低了，受雨/雨间循环的控制。撒哈拉 6ka 的干旱化极大地减少了整个北非的狮子活动范围。撒哈拉干旱化与畜牧业的发展和从事畜牧业的定居社区的发展相关联，会给狮子带来额外和持久的人为压力。主要结.