1. Ecological stability based on statistical variability was contrasted with the asymptotical local stability of transient states during successional changes in community structure in kelp forests and barren grounds.
2. Simplified semi-quantitative ecological models with different levels of complexity were constructed to represent transient successional states in kelp and barrens, and Routh–Hurwitz's criteria and Levins' criterion of local stability were also estimated.
3. The results suggest that ecological stability based on statistical variation does not match local (mathematical) stability, since although successional changes in kelp exhibited less variability (measured as percentage coefficient of variation), barren beds were more locally stable. The local stability criteria used in the current work could be a suitable technique for evaluating the likelihood of transient ecological states to resist or change, since it considers states at equilibrium to maintain their properties only against small disturbances.
4. These outcomes are relevant because the natural alternation between kelp and barrens could be disrupted by the intensive harvest of kelp species carried out over the last 10 years on the central-north Chilean coast and in other temperate ecosystems.
5. Additionally, the negative effects of harvesting kelp species could have a synergetic relationship with other drivers such as climate change and coastal pollution. Thus, strict policy managements to limit the kelp harvest are deeply encouraged. A monitoring programme for assessing the current conditions of benthic–pelagic ecosystems along the Chilean coast is also required.

中文翻译：

---

比较海藻林和荒地（东南太平洋）中演替瞬态模型的稳定性：对保护监测的影响

1. 基于统计变异性的生态稳定性与海藻林和荒地群落结构演替过程中瞬态的渐近局部稳定性形成对比。
2. 构建了具有不同复杂程度的简化半定量生态模型来表示海带和贫瘠地区的瞬态演替状态，并且还估计了劳斯-赫尔维茨标准和莱文斯局部稳定性标准。
3. 结果表明，基于统计变异的生态稳定性与局部（数学）稳定性不匹配，因为尽管海带的演替变化表现出较小的变异性（以百分比变异系数衡量），但贫瘠的海床在局部更稳定。当前工作中使用的局部稳定性标准可能是评估瞬态生态状态抵抗或改变的可能性的合适技术，因为它认为处于平衡状态的状态仅在较小的干扰下才能保持其特性。
4. 这些结果是相关的，因为过去 10 年来在智利中北部海岸和其他温带生态系统中大量捕捞海带物种可能会破坏海带和荒地之间的自然交替。
5. 此外，收获海带物种的负面影响可能与气候变化和沿海污染等其他驱动因素产生协同关系。因此，强烈鼓励严格的政策管理来限制海带的收获。还需要一个用于评估智利海岸底栖-远洋生态系统当前状况的监测计划。