As cities across the country face mounting pressures to address the housing affordability crisis, planners and policymakers have increasingly eyed upzonings as an instrument to alleviate rising housing costs. Yet, upzonings have emerged as a site of deep conflict, driving a wedge between groups advocating for supply-side solutions and those calling for added tenant protections and affordable housing preservation. Upzoning advocates–many affiliated with the yes-in-my-backyard (YIMBY) movement–have argued that in allowing for denser development, upzonings will help to lift artificial restrictions on supply and lower housing prices in the long run. Opponents, often representing tenant interests, have countered that upzonings will accelerate gentrification and displacement pressures. Despite these cleavages about the effects of upzonings on gentrification and displacement, minimal empirical research to date has examined the link between upzonings and neighborhood demographic change. To help fill this gap in the literature, this paper examines how upzoning activity is associated with subsequent change in the non-Hispanic white population in New York City between 2000 and 2010. Using New York as a case study, this paper finds that upzoning activity is positively and significantly associated with the odds of a census tract becoming whiter, suggesting that neighborhood upzonings might accelerate, rather than temper, gentrification pressures in the short term.

随着全国各地城市面临着应对住房负担能力危机的越来越大的压力，规划人员和政策制定者越来越多地将上级分区视为缓解住房成本上涨的手段。然而，区域升级已成为一个深层冲突的场所，这在主张提供供应方解决方案的团体与呼吁增加租户保护和负担得起的住房保护的团体之间产生了分歧。升级分区的拥护者（许多与“我的后院是”运动有联系的人）认为，在允许更密集的发展的过程中，从长远来看，升级分区将有助于解除对供应的人为限制并降低住房价格。常常代表租户利益的反对者已提出反对意见，认为升级分区将加速中产阶级化和流离失所的压力。尽管对上分区对高级化和位移的影响有分歧，但迄今为止，最少的实证研究已经研究了上分区与邻里人口变化之间的联系。为了填补文献中的空白，本文研究了2000年至2010年间纽约市非西班牙裔白人人口的升迁活动与随后的变化如何相关。以纽约为例，本文发现升华活动与人口普查区变白的可能性呈正相关且显着相关，这表明在短期内邻里升迁可能会加速而不是回旋高档化压力。