Models are essential to assess the socio-economic credentials of new agroforestry systems. In this study, we showcase robust optimisation as a tool to evaluate agroforestry’s potential to meet farmers’ multiple goals. Our modelling approach has three parts. First, we use a discrete land-use model to evaluate two agroforestry systems (alley cropping and silvopasture) and conventional land uses against five socio-economic objectives, focusing on the forest frontier in eastern Panama. Next, we couple the land-use model with robust optimisation, to determine the mix of land uses (farm portfolio) that minimises trade-offs between the five objectives. Here we consider uncertainty to simulate the land-use decisions of a risk-averse farmer. Finally, we assess how the type and amount of agroforestry included in the optimal land-use portfolio changes under different environmental, socio-economic and political scenarios, to explore the conditions that may make agroforestry more attractive for farmers. We identify silvopasture as a promising land use for meeting farmers’ goals, especially for farms with less productive soils. The additional labour demand compared to conventional pasture, however, may prove an important barrier to adoption for farms facing acute labour shortages. The selection of agroforestry responded strongly to changes in investment costs and timber prices, suggesting that cost-sharing arrangements and tax incentives could be effective strategies to enhance adoption. We found alley cropping to be less compatible with farmers’ risk aversion, but this agroforestry system may still be a desirable complement to the land-use portfolio, especially for farmers who are more profit-oriented and tolerant of risk.

模型对于评估新型农林业系统的社会经济信誉至关重要。在这项研究中，我们展示了强大的优化工具，可作为评估农林业实现农民多重目标潜力的工具。我们的建模方法包括三个部分。首先，我们使用离散的土地利用模型，根据五个社会经济目标，评估了两种农林业系统（小农作物种植和森林植被）和常规土地利用，重点是巴拿马东部的森林边界。接下来，我们将土地利用模型与强大的优化方法结合起来，确定土地利用的组合（农业组合），以最小化五个目标之间的权衡。在这里，我们考虑不确定性来模拟规避风险的农民的土地使用决策。最后，我们评估了在不同的环境，社会经济和政治情况下，最佳土地利用组合中农林业的类型和数量如何变化，以探索使农林业对农民更具吸引力的条件。我们认为Silvopasture是实现农民目标的有希望的土地用途，特别是对于土壤生产力较低的农场。但是，与传统牧场相比，额外的劳动力需求可能成为面临严重劳动力短缺的农场采用农作物的重要障碍。农林业的选择对投资成本和木材价格的变化做出了强烈反应，这表明分担成本的安排和税收优惠政策可能是提高采用率的有效战略。我们发现小巷种植与农民的风险规避不那么协调，