The availability of dissolved inorganic and organic nutrients and their transformations along the fresh to marine continuum are being modified by various natural and anthropogenic activities and climate-related changes. Subtropical central and eastern Florida Bay, located at the southern end of the Florida peninsula, is classically considered to have inorganic nutrient conditions that are in higher-than-Redfield ratio proportions, and high levels of organic and chemically-reduced forms of nitrogen. However, salinity, pH and nutrients, both organic and inorganic, change with changes in freshwater flows to the bay. Here, using a time series of water quality and physico-chemical conditions from 2009 to 2019, the impacts of distinct changes in managed flow, drought, El Niño-related increases in precipitation, and intensive storms and hurricanes are explored with respect to changes in water quality and resulting ecosystem effects, with a focus on understanding why picocyanobacterial blooms formed when they did. Drought produced hyper-salinity conditions that were associated with a seagrass die-off. Years later, increases in precipitation resulting from intensive storms and a hurricane were associated with high loads of organic nutrients, and declines in pH, likely due to high organic acid input and decaying organic matter, collectively leading to physiologically favorable conditions for growth of the picocyanobacterium, Synechococcus spp. These conditions, including very high concentrations of NH₄⁺, were likely inhibiting for seagrass recovery and for growth of competing phytoplankton or their grazers. Given projected future climate conditions, and anticipated cycles of drought and intensive storms, the likelihood of future seagrass die-offs and picocyanobacterial blooms is high.

各种自然和人为活动以及与气候有关的变化正在改变溶解的无机和有机营养物的可用性及其从新鲜到海洋连续体的转化。位于佛罗里达半岛南端的亚热带中部和东部佛罗里达湾，通常被认为具有高于Redfield比例的无机营养条件，以及高水平的有机和化学还原形式的氮。但是，随着流向海湾的淡水的变化，有机和无机的盐度，pH和养分都会发生变化。在这里，使用2009年至2019年的水质和理化条件的时间序列，管理流量，干旱，与厄尔尼诺现象有关的降水增加，针对水质的变化及其对生态系统的影响，对暴风雨和飓风进行了探索，重点是弄清它们为什么形成微蓝藻水华。干旱产生了与海草死亡相关的高盐度条件。数年后，强风暴和飓风造成的降水增加与有机养分的大量添加有关，pH下降可能是由于高有机酸输入和有机物质的腐烂，共同导致了微蓝细菌生长的生理上有利的条件，干旱产生了与海草死亡相关的高盐度条件。数年后，强风暴和飓风造成的降水增加与有机养分的大量添加有关，pH下降可能是由于高有机酸输入和有机物质的腐烂，共同导致了微蓝细菌生长的生理上有利的条件，干旱产生了与海草死亡有关的高盐度条件。数年后，强风暴和飓风造成的降水增加与有机养分的大量添加有关，pH下降可能是由于高有机酸输入和有机物质的腐烂，共同导致了微蓝细菌生长的生理上有利的条件，聚球藻属。这些条件，包括非常高浓度的NH ₄ ⁺，可能会抑制海草的恢复以及竞争性浮游植物或其放牧者的生长。考虑到预计的未来气候条件，以及干旱和强风暴的预期周期，未来海草死亡和微蓝细菌繁殖的可能性很高。