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Making sense of increased synchronization in global house prices
Journal of European Real Estate Research ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-13 , DOI: 10.1108/jerer-11-2019-0044
John V. Duca

Evidence indicates that house prices have become somewhat more synchronized during this century, likely reflecting more correlated movements in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles that are related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification. Nevertheless, the trend toward increased synchronization has not been continuous, reflecting that house prices depend on other fundamentals, which are not uniform across countries or cities. Theory and limited econometric evidence indicate that the more common are fundamentals, the more in-synch house price cycles will become and the more substitution effects may matter. In addition, real estate markets that are open to immigration and foreign investment have become more sensitive to shifts in the international demand for property by migrants or investors.

中文翻译:

了解全球房价同步增长的意义

有证据表明,在本世纪,房价已变得更加同步,这可能反映出与全球化趋势和国际证券投资多元化趋势相关的长期利率和宏观经济周期之间的相关性更高。然而,同步化的趋势并没有持续下去,这反映出房价取决于其他基本面,而这些基本面在国家或城市之间并不统一。理论和有限的计量经济学证据表明,基本面越普遍,房价周期将变得越同步,替代效应可能越重要。此外,对移民和外国投资开放的房地产市场对移民或投资者对国际房地产需求的变化变得更加敏感。
更新日期:2020-04-13
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