Although several previous studies have advanced the knowledge of how violence perpetrated by DTOs affects electoral outcomes, the study of how levels of criminal violence vary during local electoral contests remains scant. Stated differently, we know little on whether the local electoral cycle has an effect on the level of criminal violence. Employing the CIDE-PPD Database, we find that local elections do have an effect on levels of DTOs violence and that the greatest incentives to upscale violence occur shortly before election day. These fluctuations suggest that DTOs are actively seeking to influence local governance in their favor especially during the campaigns. Our analysis also suggests that candidates in local Mexican elections face a more precarious and dangerous situation compared to recently-elected authorities.

尽管之前的几项研究已经加深了对 DTO 实施的暴力如何影响选举结果的认识，但关于地方选举竞赛期间犯罪暴力程度如何变化的研究仍然很少。换句话说，我们对地方选举周期是否对犯罪暴力水平有影响知之甚少。使用 CIDE-PPD 数据库，我们发现地方选举确实对 DTO 的暴力程度有影响，并且升级暴力的最大诱因发生在选举日前不久。这些波动表明，DTO 正在积极寻求以有利于他们的方式影响地方治理，尤其是在竞选期间。Our analysis also suggests that candidates in local Mexican elections face a more precarious and dangerous situation compared to recently-elected authorities.