Using wave 5 of the National Income Dynamics Study (conducted in 2017), this paper investigates the market for very low-priced cigarettes in South Africa, which, in all probability, are illicit. Since the sum of the excise tax and VAT in 2017 amounted to R16.30 (1.22 USD) per pack, any cigarettes selling for R20 (1.50 USD) per pack or less are likely to be illicit, assuming reasonable production costs. By this definition, approximately 30% of cigarettes consumed in South Africa in 2017 were illicit. Illicit cigarettes are found across all nine provinces. At the margin, the purchase of illicit cigarettes is associated with lower socio-economic characteristics, such as having lower levels of income and education. As illicit cigarettes undermine both the fiscal and health agendas of tobacco taxation policy, these results highlight the need for the South African government to implement urgently effective measures in order to curb illicit trade.

中文翻译：

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南非的非法/廉价香烟

本文利用国家收入动态研究的第 5 波（于 2017 年进行）调查了南非极低价卷烟的市场，这些很可能是非法的。由于 2017 年消费税和增值税的总和为每包 16.30 兰特（1.22 美元），假设生产成本合理，任何售价为每包 20 兰特（1.50 美元）或以下的卷烟都可能是非法的。根据这一定义，2017 年南非消费的卷烟中约有 30% 是非法卷烟。所有九个省都发现了非法卷烟。在边际上，购买非法卷烟与较低的社会经济特征有关，例如收入和教育水平较低。由于非法卷烟破坏了烟草税收政策的财政和健康议程，