Social movements are constantly evolving. Protest activity waxes and wanes as movements suffer through prolonged periods of frustration, win occasional gains, and turn to new goals and issues. While theoretical models of protest activity are often sensitive to this reality, empirical models typically treat these explanations as time-invariant, rather than situated in specific moments in movements’ histories. Quite simply, we suspect that the effect of important predictors of movement activity, notably access to resources, political opportunities, repression, and competition, varies depending on the specific moment in the movement’s life course. We explore this possibility through a detailed analysis of three main periods of the American Civil Rights movement: (1) the movement’s initial success (1960–1968), its subsequent demobilization (1968–1977), and its institutionalization (1978–1995). Our analysis builds on limited work arguing for greater sensitivity to a movement’s life course when explaining protest activity. We find that the type of organizational resources that shape mobilization varies across periods, and support for prior work showing that the concurrent push and pull of institutionalization and radicalization led to demobilization. Finally, we find that coalition work motivated protest during its period of institutionalization. We conclude by discussing the theoretical and empirical implications of these findings.

中文翻译：

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评估民权运动一生过程中社会运动理论的解释力

社会运动在不断发展。抗议活动会因长时间的挫折而遭受痛苦，逐渐消退，赢得偶尔的收获，并转向新的目标和问题。虽然抗议活动的理论模型通常对此现实敏感，但经验模型通常将这些解释视为时不变的，而不是位于运动历史中的特定时刻。简而言之，我们怀疑运动活动的重要预测因素（尤其是获得资源，政治机会，压制和竞争）的影响取决于运动过程中的特定时刻。我们通过对美国民权运动的三个主要时期进行详细分析来探讨这种可能性：（1）该运动最初取得成功（1960–1968），其后复员（1968–1977），及其制度化（1978-1995年）。我们的分析建立在有限的工作基础上，认为在解释抗议活动时，对运动的生命历程具有更高的敏感性。我们发现，影响动员的组织资源类型在各个时期都各不相同，并且对先前工作的支持表明，制度化和激进的同时推动和拉动导致复员。最后，我们发现联盟工作在其制度化时期激发了抗议活动。最后，我们讨论了这些发现的理论和经验含义。以及对先前工作的支持，表明体制化和激进化的同时推动和拉动导致了复员。最后，我们发现联盟工作在其制度化时期激发了抗议活动。最后，我们讨论了这些发现的理论和经验含义。以及对先前工作的支持，表明体制化和激进化的同时推动和拉动导致了复员。最后，我们发现联盟工作在其制度化时期激发了抗议活动。最后，我们讨论了这些发现的理论和经验含义。