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Boko Haram, pro-synergic conditions and community involvement in counterinsurgency
Security Journal ( IF 1.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-17 , DOI: 10.1057/s41284-020-00236-4
Bonaventure N. Nwokeoma , Kelechi E. Okpara , Nnabuike O. Osadebe

Beyond the traditional military response to insurgent situations and acknowledging the internal mechanisms underlying insurgency, community involvement in counterinsurgency campaign became imperative especially with the emergence of Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) operation in Northeast Nigeria. However, the extent to which communal consciousness (CC), anti-insurgent sentiments (AIS), confidence in state security operatives (CSSO), perceived community support (PCS) and willingness to provide Intel to state security operatives (WPISSO) predict effective involvement in counterinsurgency (EICI) remained inadequately explained. To investigate this identified gap, a cross-sectional design involving the use of questionnaire was adopted to obtain data from 277 CJTF members in Northeastern Nigeria. Eight identified leaders or influential members of the local CJTF units were also interviewed for qualitative information. The quantitative data were analyzed using Spearman’s correlation coefficient and logistic regression. The study found that the five identified independent variables (CC, AIS, WPISSO, CSSO and PCS) correlate with community involvement in counterinsurgency campaign (CICI) ( p < .01), while only three variables (CC, WPISSO and PCS) significantly predict EICI ( p < .01). Integrative approaches that are built on the preconditions were considered as a more result-oriented in de-escalating and curbing the insurgency.

中文翻译:

博科圣地,支持协同条件和社区参与反叛乱

除了对叛乱局势的传统军事反应和承认叛乱背后的内部机制之外,社区参与平叛运动变得势在必行,尤其是随着平民联合特遣部队 (CJTF) 在尼日利亚东北部行动的出现。然而,社区意识 (CC)、反叛乱情绪 (AIS)、对国家安全人员 (CSSO) 的信心、感知社区支持 (PCS) 以及向国家安全人员提供英特尔的意愿 (WPISSO) 预测有效参与的程度在反叛乱(EICI)中仍然没有得到充分解释。为了调查这一发现的差距,采用了涉及使用问卷的横断面设计来获取尼日利亚东北部 277 名 CJTF 成员的数据。八名确定的当地 CJTF 单位的领导人或有影响力的成员也接受了定性信息的采访。使用斯皮尔曼相关系数和逻辑回归分析定量数据。研究发现,五个确定的自变量(CC、AIS、WPISSO、CSSO 和 PCS)与社区参与反叛乱运动 (CICI) 相关(p <.01),而只有三个变量(CC、WPISSO 和 PCS)显着预测EICI (p <.01)。以先决条件为基础的综合方法被认为是在缓和和遏制叛乱方面更加注重结果的方法。研究发现,五个确定的自变量(CC、AIS、WPISSO、CSSO 和 PCS)与社区参与反叛乱运动 (CICI) 相关(p <.01),而只有三个变量(CC、WPISSO 和 PCS)显着预测EICI (p <.01)。以先决条件为基础的综合方法被认为是在缓和和遏制叛乱方面更加注重结果的方法。研究发现,五个确定的自变量(CC、AIS、WPISSO、CSSO 和 PCS)与社区参与反叛乱运动 (CICI) 相关(p <.01),而只有三个变量(CC、WPISSO 和 PCS)显着预测EICI (p <.01)。以先决条件为基础的综合方法被认为是在缓和和遏制叛乱方面更加注重结果的方法。
更新日期:2020-02-17
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