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Mathematical approach to the analysis of terrorism dynamics
Security Journal ( IF 1.701 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-17 , DOI: 10.1057/s41284-020-00235-5
C. Okoye , O. C. Collins , G. C. E. Mbah

In pursuance of differing goals and ideologies, nations, religions, political groups rising against themselves have characterized human existence over the years. In recent times, such animosities have widened to the point of dehumanization and wide destruction of properties with threat and fear as strong arsenal. Terrorism has become very prevalent especially its many new forms that use drones and chemical and biological weapons. A mathematical model helps to explain a system (mutable natural occurrences such as dynamics in terrorism) by a painstaking study of different components of terrorists’ splinter cells ranging from foot soldiers, intelligent mission units, kidnappers, and suicide bombers, to make predictions about its behaviour. This work argues the use of mathematical models to study terrorism by providing insights into evolving trends. The specific objective of this study is to investigate how to improve the understanding of the policymakers on terrorism mitigation. The study adopted a mathematical modelling and theoretical design. The mathematical equations formulated were based on the underlying principles of terrorism, which include recruitment, desertion from group, counter-terrorism measures, et cetera. The models were sets of ordinary nonlinear differential equations based on assumptions emanating from the literature reviewed on terrorism. Qualitative analysis and relevant numerical simulations of the model were carried out. The results illustrate new approach on which terrorism can be reduced.

中文翻译:

恐怖主义动态分析的数学方法

多年来,为了追求不同的目标和意识形态,国家、宗教、反对自己的政治团体已经成为人类生存的特征。最近,这种仇恨已经扩大到非人化和广泛破坏财产的地步,威胁和恐惧是强大的武器。恐怖主义已经变得非常普遍,特别是其许多使用无人机和化学和生物武器的新形式。数学模型通过对恐怖分子分裂细胞(包括步兵、智能任务单位、绑架者和自杀式炸弹袭击者)的不同组成部分进行细致研究,有助于解释一个系统(可变的自然事件,例如恐怖主义中的动态),以对其进行预测。行为。这项工作通过提供对不断发展的趋势的洞察力,论证了使用数学模型来研究恐怖主义。本研究的具体目标是调查如何提高决策者对缓解恐怖主义的理解。本研究采用数学建模和理论设计。制定的数学方程式基于恐怖主义的基本原则,其中包括招募、脱离团体、反恐措施等。这些模型是一组普通的非线性微分方程,这些方程基于对恐怖主义进行审查的文献中的假设。对该模型进行了定性分析和相关数值模拟。结果说明了一种可以减少恐怖主义的新方法。本研究采用数学建模和理论设计。制定的数学方程式基于恐怖主义的基本原则,其中包括招募、脱离团体、反恐措施等。这些模型是一组普通的非线性微分方程,这些方程基于对恐怖主义进行审查的文献中的假设。对该模型进行了定性分析和相关数值模拟。结果说明了一种可以减少恐怖主义的新方法。本研究采用数学建模和理论设计。制定的数学方程式基于恐怖主义的基本原则,其中包括招募、脱离团体、反恐措施等。这些模型是一组普通的非线性微分方程,这些方程基于对恐怖主义进行审查的文献中的假设。对该模型进行了定性分析和相关数值模拟。结果说明了一种可以减少恐怖主义的新方法。这些模型是一组普通的非线性微分方程,这些方程基于对恐怖主义进行审查的文献中的假设。对该模型进行了定性分析和相关数值模拟。结果说明了一种可以减少恐怖主义的新方法。这些模型是一组普通的非线性微分方程,这些方程基于对恐怖主义进行审查的文献中的假设。对该模型进行了定性分析和相关数值模拟。结果说明了一种可以减少恐怖主义的新方法。
更新日期:2020-02-17
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