This study investigated the notion of near-repeat victimisation in the context of the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Applying methods originally developed for epidemiological research the current study found strong evidence that attacks by the Taliban insurgency occurred in microcycles of localised bursts of terrorist events. Nearly 40% of the 305 attacks analysed by the Taliban in 2016 took place within 5 miles and 2 weeks of each other. A binary logistic regression showed that, compared to other strategies, attacks were more likely to occur in microcycles when they were on national or provincial capitals, non-fatal and included bombings or armed assaults. These findings are in accordance with previous research conducted in other countries, suggesting that globally, terrorist organisations face similar strategic options and constraints. The results have implications for the understanding of terrorist campaigns at a more disaggregated level, for the prediction of future attacks and for counter-terrorism strategies.

中文翻译：

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对塔利班暴力微循环的调查

本研究调查了阿富汗塔利班叛乱背景下近乎重复受害的概念。应用最初为流行病学研究开发的方法，当前的研究发现了强有力的证据，表明塔利班叛乱的袭击发生在局部恐怖事件爆发的微循环中。塔利班在 2016 年分析的 305 次攻击中，近 40% 发生在 5 英里和 2 周之内。二元逻辑回归表明，与其他策略相比，当攻击发生在国家或省会城市时，攻击更可能发生在微循环中，非致命性的，包括爆炸或武装袭击。这些发现与之前在其他国家进行的研究一致，表明在全球范围内，恐怖组织面临类似的战略选择和限制。