ABSTRACT In this era of austerity, while there are significant fiscal pressures on social protection programs particularly on cash benefits, there is increasing rhetoric concerning the ‘social investment turn.’ Yet, some scholars question whether social investment policies are actually expanding. The evidence is not sufficiently apparent, and others question whether social protection policies have actually crowded out social investment policies. So far, few systematic studies have examined this issue. This research aims to explore the effect of traditional social protection on social investment policies in 18 OECD countries from 1980 to 2010. To investigate the predictive and causal relationships between the two types of policies, we will use the Granger panel analysis. Then, we will adopt the Beck & Katz panel model to analyze the crowding-out effect that social protection policies have on social investment. We argue that social protection has not crowded out social investment policies in general but, rather, that the positive link between them is increasingly weaker in recent years. In the end, we discuss the theoretical and policy implications of our findings.

中文翻译：

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社会保护会挤出社会投资吗？

摘要在这个紧缩的时代，尽管对社会保护计划，特别是对现金收益的财政压力很大，但有关“社会投资转向”的言论却越来越多。然而，一些学者质疑社会投资政策是否实际上正在扩大。证据不充分，其他人质疑社会保护政策是否实际上挤占了社会投资政策。到目前为止，很少有系统研究研究此问题。这项研究旨在探讨1980年至2010年间OECD在18个经合组织国家中传统社会保护对社会投资政策的影响。为了研究两种类型政策之间的预测关系和因果关系，我们将使用Granger面板分析。然后，我们将采用Beck＆Katz面板模型用于分析社会保护政策对社会投资的挤出效应。我们认为，社会保护并没有使社会投资政策总体上排挤，而是近年来它们之间的积极联系越来越弱。最后，我们讨论了研究结果的理论和政策含义。