I outline four conditions on permissible promise-making: the promise must be for a morally permissible end, must not be deceptive, must be in good faith, and must involve a realistic assessment of oneself. I then address whether promises that you are uncertain you can keep can meet these four criteria, with a focus on campaign promises as an illustrative example. I argue that uncertain promises can meet the first two criteria, but that whether they can meet the second two depends on the source of the promisor's uncertainty. External uncertainty stemming from outside factors is unproblematic, but internal uncertainty stemming from the promisor's doubts about her own strength leads to promises that are in bad faith or unrealistic. I conclude that campaign promises are often subject to internal uncertainty and are therefore morally impermissible to make, all else being equal.

中文翻译：

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不确定条件下允许的承诺

我概述了允许做出承诺的四个条件：承诺必须是为了道德上允许的目的，不得具有欺骗性，必须真诚，并且必须对自己进行现实的评估。然后，我将讨论您不确定是否可以遵守的承诺是否可以满足这四个标准，并以竞选承诺作为说明性示例。我认为不确定的承诺可以满足前两个标准，但它们是否能满足后两个取决于承诺人不确定性的来源。来自外部因素的外部不确定性是没有问题的，但由于承诺人对自身实力的怀疑而产生的内部不确定性会导致不诚实或不切实际的承诺。