Abstract Betting odds are generally considered to represent accurate reflections of the underlying probabilities for the outcomes of sporting events. There are, however, known to be a number of inherent biases such as the favorite-longshot bias in which outsiders are generally priced with poorer value odds than favorites. Using data from European soccer matches, this paper demonstrates the existence of another bias in which the match odds overreact to favorable and unfavorable runs of results. A statistic is defined, called the Combined Odds Distribution (COD) statistic, which measures the performance of a team relative to expectations given their odds over previous matches. Teams that overperform expectations tend to have a high COD statistic and those that underperform tend to have a low COD statistic. Using data from twenty different leagues over twelve seasons, it is shown that teams with a low COD statistic tend to be assigned more generous odds by bookmakers. This can be exploited and a sustained and robust profit can be made. It is suggested that the bias in the odds can be explained in the context of the “hot hand fallacy”, in which gamblers overestimate variation in the ability of each team over time.

中文翻译：

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从足球博彩赔率的过度反应中获利

摘要博彩赔率通常被认为代表了体育赛事结果的潜在概率的准确反映。但是，已知有许多固有偏差，例如“偏爱-远射”偏见，在这种偏见中，局外人的定价通常比偏爱的差。利用欧洲足球比赛的数据，本文证明了存在另一个偏差，即比赛赔率对结果的有利和不利反应过度。定义了一个统计数据，称为综合赔率分布（COD）统计数据，该统计数据根据给定的前几场比赛的赔率来衡量球队相对于期望的表现。表现超出预期的团队往往具有较高的COD统计数据，而表现较差的团队则具有较低的COD统计数据。使用来自十二个赛季的二十个不同联赛的数据，可以看出，具有较低COD统计量的球队往往被庄家分配的赔率更高。可以利用这一点，并获得持续而强劲的利润。建议在“热手谬误”的背景下解释赔率的偏差，在这种情况下，赌徒高估了每个团队的能力随时间的变化。