Abstract The recently concluded 2019 World Swimming Championships was another major swimming competition that witnessed some great progresses achieved by human athletes in many events. However, some world records created 10 years ago back in the era of high-tech swimsuits remained untouched. With the advancements in technical skills and training methods in the past decade, the inability to break those world records is a strong indication that records with the swimsuit bonus cannot reflect the real progressions achieved by human athletes in history. Many swimming professionals and enthusiasts are eager to know a measure of the real world records had the high-tech swimsuits never been allowed. This paper attempts to restore the real world records in Men’s swimming without high-tech swimsuits by integrating various advanced methods in probabilistic modeling and optimization. Through the modeling and separation of swimsuit bias, natural improvement, and athletes’ intrinsic performance, the result of this paper provides the optimal estimates and the 95% confidence intervals for the real world records. The proposed methodology can also be applied to a variety of similar studies with multi-factor considerations.

中文翻译：

---

在没有高科技泳衣的情况下恢复男子游泳的真实世界记录

摘要最近结束的2019年世界游泳锦标赛是另一项重大游泳比赛，见证了人类运动员在许多赛事中取得的巨大进步。但是，十年前在高科技泳衣时代创造的一些世界纪录仍未改变。随着过去十年中技术技能和训练方法的进步，无法打破这些世界纪录是有力证据表明，带泳装奖金的纪录无法反映人类运动员在历史上取得的真正进步。如果从未允许使用高科技泳衣，许多游泳专业人士和发烧友都渴望了解真实世界的记录。本文试图通过将各种先进方法集成到概率建模和优化中来还原没有高科技泳衣的男士游泳的真实世界记录。通过对泳衣偏向，自然改善和运动员的内在表现进行建模和分离，本文的结果为真实世界记录提供了最佳估计值和95％置信区间。提出的方法还可以应用于具有多因素考虑因素的各种类似研究中。