Abstract Each year, the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament attracts popular attention, including bracket challenges where fans seek to pick the winners of the tournament’s games. However, the quantity and unpredictable nature of games suggest a single bracket will likely select some winning teams incorrectly even if created with insightful and sophisticated methods. Hence, rather than focusing on creating a single bracket to perform well, a challenge participant may wish to create a pool of brackets that likely contains at least one high-scoring bracket. This paper proposes a power model to estimate tournament outcome probabilities based on past tournament data. Bracket pools are generated for the 2013–2019 tournaments using six generators, five using the power model and one using the Bradley-Terry model. The generated brackets are assessed by the ESPN scoring system and compared to those produced by a traditional pick favorite approach as well as the highest scoring brackets in the ESPN Tournament Challenge for each year.

中文翻译：

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生成NCAA男子篮球比赛支架池的模型

摘要每年，NCAA I级男子篮球锦标赛都引起了人们的广泛关注，其中包括托架挑战，球迷们试图选择比赛的获胜者。但是，游戏的数量和不可预测的性质表明，即使使用有洞察力和复杂的方法来创建一个获胜团队，单个支架也可能会错误地选择一些获胜团队。因此，挑战参与者可能希望创建一个可能包含至少一个高分得分的支架，而不是专注于创建一个表现良好的支架。本文提出了一个基于过去比赛数据估算比赛结果概率的能力模型。2013-2019年锦标赛的托架池使用六种生成器生成，五种使用功率模型生成，另一种使用Bradley-Terry模型生成。