This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities, almost 75,600, to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. However, this de-escalation in Syria is countered by increased violence in Africa, as IS and other transnational jihadist groups have relocated their efforts there. Furthermore, violence has continued to increase in Afghanistan; UCDP recorded more than 31,200 fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the globe. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts, which remained on a historically high level. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2019, including seven wars. Twenty-eight state-based conflicts involved IS (Islamic State), al-Qaida or their affiliates. In the past decade, conflicts involving these transnational jihadist groups have driven many of the trends in organized violence.

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有组织的暴力，1989-2019

本文以乌普萨拉冲突数据计划 (UCDP) 的新数据为基础，报告了有组织暴力的趋势。伊斯兰国 (IS) 在叙利亚和伊拉克的失败已将近 75,600 人的死亡人数推至 2011 年叙利亚内战爆发以来的最低水平。 然而，叙利亚局势的缓和却因暴力事件的增加而受到反击在非洲，因为伊斯兰国和其他跨国圣战组织已将他们的工作转移到那里。此外，阿富汗的暴力行为继续增加；2019 年，UCDP 在阿富汗记录了超过 31,200 人死亡，占全球有组织暴力死亡人数的 40%。有组织暴力造成的死亡人数总体下降与活跃冲突数量的趋势不符，后者仍处于历史高位。UCDP 在 2019 年记录了 54 起基于州的冲突，其中包括七场战争。28 场基于国家的冲突涉及 IS（伊斯兰国）、基地组织或其附属机构。在过去十年中，涉及这些跨国圣战组织的冲突推动了有组织暴力的许多趋势。