This article first discusses the question of how empirical research can contribute to the ongoing discussions concerning the future of the church. Among others, German research on church membership is used as a case study for gaining insights into the interplay between theoretical assumptions, empirical research and designing strategies for church development. The need for comparisons over time, for longitudinal studies and the identification of long-term predictors is discussed. Against this background, recent research on confirmation work in Germany and Europe is taken up as an example. The article draws on data from a European study on confirmation work with a longitudinal research approach. The results show that confirmation work, as one of the major educational programs of the Protestant Church, can influence adolescents’ views of Christian faith and the church. Predictors for future commitment to the church in terms of believing, belonging and volunteerism are not only dependent on religious socialization in childhood but also on experiences and activities during confirmation time in adolescence.

中文翻译：

---

实证研究能预测教会的未来吗？

本文首先讨论了实证研究如何为有关教会未来的持续讨论做出贡献的问题。其中，德国对教会成员资格的研究被用作案例研究，以深入了解理论假设、实证研究和教会发展设计策略之间的相互作用。讨论了随着时间的推移进行比较、纵向研究和确定长期预测因子的必要性。在此背景下，以近期对德国和欧洲确认工作的研究为例。这篇文章借鉴了欧洲关于采用纵向研究方法进行确认工作的研究数据。结果表明，确认工作作为新教教会的主要教育项目之一，可以影响青少年对基督教信仰和教会的看法。未来在信仰、归属感和志愿服务方面对教会的承诺的预测因素不仅取决于童年时期的宗教社会化，还取决于青春期确认时期的经历和活动。