Purpose

The Early Assessment Risk Lists for Boys (EARL-20B) and Girls (EARL-21G) measure risk for future antisocial behaviour in conduct-disordered children aged 6–11. Their aim is to assist clinicians in targeting these factors so that evidence-based, age-graded responses to antisocial behaviour can be provided to prevent children from entering the criminal justice system. EARL-20B and EARL-21G factors are targeted in the Stop Now And Plan® (SNAP) crime prevention program, which has been proven to be both effective and cost-effective. The present study assessed the long-term predictive power of the EARL-20B for 379 boys and the EARL-21G for 67 girls who received the SNAP program between 1985 and 1999.

Methods

EARL scores were retrospectively coded from case files by three independent raters who also provided confidence ratings for each case (i.e. high, moderate, low). EARL scores were compared with official criminal conviction records registered between each child’s 12th and 21st birthdays.

Results

The EARL-20B total score was a significant predictor of any offence for boys and its predictive power was improved for high-confidence ratings. For females, the EARL-21G total score predicted property offending and administration of justice charges for high-moderate confidence cases only. Specific individual, family and peer factors predicted conviction status at follow-up for boys and girls.

Conclusions

The findings from this study provide support for using empirically-derived risk assessment tools such as the EARL-20B and EARL-21G to identify children at high risk for future involvement in crime. Developmental crime prevention programs such as SNAP should focus on children with a subset of risk factors that have strong statistical relationships with conviction status during adolescence and early adulthood.

中文翻译：

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使用早期评估风险表预测未来12岁以下儿童的刑事定罪

目的

男孩（EARL-20B）和女孩（EARL-21G）的早期评估风险清单可衡量6-11岁行为不健全儿童未来反社会行为的风险。他们的目的是协助临床医生针对这些因素，以便可以提供基于证据的，按年龄分级的反社会行为对策，以防止儿童进入刑事司法系统。EARL-20B和EARL-21G因素是Stop Now AndPlan®（SNAP）犯罪预防计划的目标，该计划已被证明既有效又具有成本效益。本研究评估了1985年至1999年接受SNAP计划的379名男孩的EARL-20B和67名女孩的EARL-21G的长期预测能力。

方法

EARL分数由三个独立的评估者从病例档案中进行回顾性编码，他们还提供了每个病例的置信度等级（即高，中，低）。将EARL分数与每个孩子12岁至21岁之间登记的官方刑事定罪记录进行比较。

结果

EARL-20B总分是男孩任何违法行为的重要预测指标，对于高自信等级，其预测能力得到了提高。对于女性，EARL-21G总分仅针对高中度信心案件预测了财产犯罪和司法指控。具体的个人，家庭和同伴因素预测了男孩和女孩在随访中的定罪状态。

结论

这项研究的结果为使用基于经验的风险评估工具（如EARL-20B和EARL-21G）识别将来有高风险参与犯罪的儿童提供了支持。诸如SNAP之类的发展性犯罪预防计划应重点关注那些具有一定危险因素的儿童，这些危险因素与青春期和成年早期的定罪状况有很强的统计关系。