Background

Van Koppen, Rodermund, and Blokland recently published an article in this journal entitled “Waxing and waning: periods of intermittency in criminal careers.” We are concerned that this article will cause confusion in criminal career research because they use the word “intermittency” to refer to time intervals between convictions.

Purpose

We are happy to recognise that their article contributes to knowledge about time intervals between convictions, but we believe that the term “intermittency” should refer to time intervals between two criminal careers when the underlying rate of offending—termed the underlying “criminal inclination” by Van Koppen et al.—is zero.

Method

In order to study intermittency, it is important to test probabilistic models of criminal careers.

Conclusion

To the extent that there is intermittency, it is desirable to investigate why individuals stop offending, why they maintain a zero-rate of offending for some time, and why they restart offending. We believe that it is also important to study the possibility of waxing and waning in criminal careers, by testing whether the underlying rate of offending during the active criminal career stays constant or varies over time.

中文翻译：

---

刑事职业中“间歇性”的含义

背景

范·科本（Van Koppen），罗德蒙德（Rodermund）和布洛克兰德（Blokland）最近在该杂志上发表了一篇题为“波动与衰退：犯罪生涯的间歇期”的文章。我们担心本文会在犯罪职业研究中引起混乱，因为它们使用“间歇性”一词来指称两次定罪之间的时间间隔。

目的

我们很高兴认识到他们的文章有助于人们了解定罪之间的时间间隔，但是我们认为，“间歇性”一词应指两个犯罪职业之间的时间间隔，即犯罪的潜在发生率（被称为“犯罪倾向”） Van Koppen等人为零。

方法

为了研究间歇性，测试犯罪职业的概率模型很重要。

结论

就存在间歇性而言，最好调查一下个人为何停止犯罪，为什么他们在一段时间内保持零犯罪率，以及为什么重新开始犯罪。我们认为，通过测试活跃的犯罪职业期间潜在的犯罪率是保持恒定还是随时间变化，研究犯罪职业中起伏不定的可能性也很重要。