Past studies conclude that a territorial integrity norm caused territorial conquest to decline sharply after 1945, virtually subsiding after 1975. However, using new and more comprehensive data on territorial conquest attempts, this study presents a revised history of conquest after 1945. Unlike attempts to conquer entire states, attempts to conquer parts of states remained far more common than previously recognized. More than conquest declined in frequency, its relationship with war evolved. Challengers attempting conquest before 1945 often initiated a war, then sought to occupy large territories. Today, challengers more often seize small regions, then attempt to avoid war. Adopting this strategy, the fait accompli, challengers increasingly came to target territories with characteristics that reduce the risk of provoking war—such as a low population and the absence of a defending military garrison—but challengers nonetheless take a calculated gamble. In part because seizures of smaller territories with such characteristics have not declined, the operative constraint appears to be against war-prone aggression, not territorial revision. The evolution of conquest is a symptom of war's decline, not its cause. Most of the evidence that the territorial integrity norm suppressed conquest or war withers under investigation with new data. Attempts to get away with seizing small pieces of territory are likely to be a defining element of the twenty-first-century international security landscape.

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1945年后领土征服的演变与领土完整规范的局限

过去的研究得出结论，领土完整规范导致领土征服在 1945 年之后急剧下降，在 1975 年之后几乎消退。然而，使用关于领土征服尝试的新的和更全面的数据，本研究呈现了 1945 年之后经过修订的征服历史。与征服尝试不同整个国家，征服部分国家的企图仍然比以前承认的要普遍得多。不仅征服频率下降，它与战争的关系也在演变。1945 年之前试图征服的挑战者经常发动战争，然后试图占领大片领土。今天，挑战者更经常占领小区域，然后试图避免战争。采用这种策略，既成事实，挑战者越来越多地瞄准具有降低挑起战争风险的特征的领土——例如人口少和缺乏防御性军事驻军——但挑战者仍然进行了有计划的赌博。部分原因是对具有这种特征的较小领土的占领并没有减少，行动限制似乎是反对容易发生战争的侵略，而不是领土修正。征服的演变是战争衰落的症状，而不是其原因。大多数表明领土完整规范压制征服或战争的证据都在用新数据进行调查。试图侥幸夺取小块领土可能是 21 世纪国际安全格局的决定性因素。