This article tests what seems to be a reasonably widespread perception, namely, that the last few years have witnessed intensified interstate security competition in several of the world’s regions. Specifically, we investigate whether or not states’ military budgets tend to change as a function of changes to the armaments levels of neighbouring states, as the security dilemma model would suggest. We perform two empirical analyses. First, we specify a least square dummy variables model, whose results we map using standard geographic information system software. Our ‘hot spot’ analysis for the period 2008/2009–2014 suggests that action–reaction dynamics are present in the Middle East, Central and Southern Africa, and the South Caucasus. Neither South nor East or South East Asia is ridden by severe security competition. Europe generally forms a ‘cold spot’ region, indicating a lower-than-expected level of changes in arms spending. Second, our spatial lag model suggests the presence of action–reaction globally for the whole post-Cold War era, although results are still substantially driven by the last few years. Interstate security competition is now, apparently, an important element of international politics – albeit only in some regions. Our findings also reveal the potential for disarmament spirals.

中文翻译：

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国家间安全竞争的地理和时间模式：全球和区域证据

这篇文章检验了一种似乎相当普遍的看法，即过去几年在世界上的几个地区见证了国家间安全竞争的加剧。具体而言，我们调查了国家的军事预算是否会随着邻国军备水平的变化而变化，正如安全困境模型所暗示的那样。我们进行了两项实证分析。首先，我们指定一个最小二乘虚拟变量模型，我们使用标准地理信息系统软件绘制其结果。我们对 2008/2009-2014 年期间的“热点”分析表明，中东、中非和南部非洲以及南高加索地区存在着行动-反应动态。南亚、东亚或东南亚都没有受到严峻的安全竞争的困扰。欧洲普遍形成“冷点”地区，表明军备支出变化低于预期水平。其次，我们的空间滞后模型表明，在整个后冷战时代，全球范围内都存在行动-反应，尽管结果仍然在很大程度上受到过去几年的推动。显然，国家间安全竞争现在是国际政治的一个重要因素——尽管只是在某些地区。我们的调查结果还揭示了裁军螺旋的潜力。国际政治的一个重要因素——尽管仅限于某些地区。我们的调查结果还揭示了裁军螺旋的潜力。国际政治的一个重要因素——尽管仅限于某些地区。我们的调查结果还揭示了裁军螺旋的潜力。