Had Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s fictional detective, the great Sherlock Holmes, actually engaged in deductive reasoning, he would have solved many fewer crimes. In fact, Holmes’ logical progression from astute observation to hypotheses is a model of a type of inductive reasoning. This paper argues that mental health professionals tasked to evaluate why a child is resisting/refusing contact with one parent must approach each family the way that Holmes approached each case, without a presumed suspect, moving systematically from detail to hypothesis, well-versed in the full range of dynamics that may be at play, and erring in favor of parsimony rather than pathology. By contrast, the custody evaluator who approaches these matters through a deductive process, seeking data that support an a priori theory, is vulnerable to confirmatory bias and doing harm to the child whose interests are paramount. The literature concerned with resist/refuse dynamics is reviewed, yielding 13 non-mutually exclusive variables that evaluators must consider so as to more fully identify why a particular child is resisting or refusing contact with one parent. On this basis, the hybrid model is expanded to include the full spectrum of contributing dynamics. Specific recommendations are made for judicial officers in the interest of writing orders for custody evaluations that minimize the risk of confirmatory bias.

中文翻译：

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夏洛克福尔摩斯和抵抗/拒绝动力学案例：儿童监护权评估中的确认性偏见和溯因推理

如果亚瑟·柯南·道尔爵士的虚构侦探，伟大的夏洛克·福尔摩斯真正从事演绎推理，他会解决的罪行会少得多。事实上，福尔摩斯从敏锐观察到假设的逻辑进展是一种归纳推理的模型。本文认为，负责评估孩子为何抗拒/拒绝与父母接触的心理健康专业人员必须像福尔摩斯处理每个案例一样对待每个家庭，没有假定的嫌疑人，系统地从细节转向假设，精通可能正在发挥作用的全方位动态，并倾向于简约而不是病理学。相比之下，监管评估者通过演绎过程处理这些问题，寻找支持先验理论的数据，容易受到证实性偏见的影响，并对利益至上的儿童造成伤害。审查了与抵制/拒绝动态相关的文献，产生了 13 个非互斥变量，评估者必须考虑这些变量，以便更全面地确定特定儿童抵制或拒绝与父母接触的原因。在此基础上，混合模型被扩展到包括所有的贡献动态范围。向司法官员提出了具体建议，以便编写监护权评估令，最大限度地降低确认性偏见的风险。产生 13 个非互斥变量，评估者必须考虑这些变量，以便更全面地确定某个特定孩子抗拒或拒绝与一位家长接触的原因。在此基础上，混合模型被扩展到包括所有的贡献动态范围。向司法官员提出了具体建议，以便编写监护权评估令，最大限度地降低确认性偏见的风险。产生 13 个非互斥变量，评估者必须考虑这些变量，以便更全面地确定某个特定孩子抗拒或拒绝与一位家长接触的原因。在此基础上，混合模型被扩展到包括所有的贡献动态范围。向司法官员提出了具体建议，以便编写监护权评估令，最大限度地降低确认性偏见的风险。