Since its origins over half a century ago, evaluative research on probation services has swung between optimism and pessimism. This article, based largely on England and Wales, describes and reviews the long journey from over-optimism, via ‘nothing works’ in the 1970s, to programmes based on Risk-Need-Responsivity principles, introduced on a large scale from the late 1990s but limited in their impact owing largely to problems in implementation. After this, evaluation researchers developed greater interest in implementation, in organisational culture and, in particular, in practitioners’ skills. In the process, researchers have developed a better understanding of the necessary social science methods for evaluation and have begun to learn from new sources such as desisting former offenders. In the meantime, in spite of encouraging research, the political context in some countries has become hostile, and research has to survive in a new context of ‘post-truth’ and politically motivated denigration of expertise.

中文翻译：

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从“无济于事”到“后真相”：英国缓刑中证据的兴衰

自半个多世纪前诞生以来，对缓刑服务的评价研究一直在乐观和悲观之间摇摆不定。这篇文章主要基于英格兰和威尔士，描述和回顾了从 1970 年代的过度乐观到“无济于事”，到基于风险-需求-响应原则的计划的漫长旅程，该计划从 1990 年代后期开始大规模引入但其影响有限，主要是由于执行中存在问题。此后，评估研究人员对实施、组织文化，尤其是从业者的技能产生了更大的兴趣。在此过程中，研究人员对必要的社会科学评估方法有了更好的理解，并开始从新的资源中学习，例如制止前罪犯。与此同时，尽管研究令人鼓舞，