Following Reichenbach, it is widely held that in making a direct inference, one should base one’s conclusion on a relevant frequency statement concerning the most specific reference class for which one is able to make a warranted and relatively precise-valued frequency judgment. In cases where one has accurate and precise-valued frequency information for two relevant reference classes, R1 and R2, and one lacks accurate and precise-valued frequency information concerning their intersection, R1 intersect R2, it is widely held, following Reichenbach, that no inference may be drawn. In contradiction to Reichenbach and the common wisdom, I argue for the view that it is often possible to draw a reasonable informative conclusion, in such circumstances. As a basis for drawing such a conclusion, I show that one is generally in a position to formulate a reasonable direct inference for a reference class that is more specific than either of R1 and R2.

中文翻译：

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Reichenbach 参考类问题的正式解决方案

在 Reichenbach 之后，人们普遍认为，在进行直接推断时，应该根据有关最具体的参考类别的相关频率陈述得出结论，人们能够对其做出有保证的和相对精确的频率判断。如果一个人拥有两个相关参考类别 R1 和 R2 的准确且精确值的频率信息，而一个人缺乏关于 R1 与 R2 相交点的准确且精确值的频率信息，那么人们普遍认为，在 Reichenbach 之后，没有可以得出推论。与赖兴巴赫和普遍智慧相反，我认为在这种情况下通常可以得出合理的信息性结论。作为得出这样结论的基础，