We use microsimulation combined with a model of the COVID-19 impacts on individuals and households to obtain projections of households in destitution in the United Kingdom. The projections are estimated at two levels: aggregate quarterly for the UK, for all quarters of 2020; and annual for 2020 differentiated by region, sector and household demographics. At the aggregate level, destitution is projected to be about three times higher than the non-COVID counterfactual level in 2020Q2, as well as substantially higher than the non-COVID case for the remainder of the year. This increased destitution is initially largely due to the effect on the self-employed, and as the Furlough scheme is drawn down, also on the unemployed. Impacts upon different regions and sectors vary widely, and so do variations across different household types. The sectors particularly affected are construction and manufacturing, while London and its closely connected regions (South East and the Midlands) are most severely affected. Single adult households suffer the most, and the adverse effects increase with number of children in the household. That the effects upon youth remain high is a particularly worrying sign, and very high increases in destitution are also projected for 25–54 year olds and the elderly (75 years and older). Further, severe adverse effects are projected for sections of society and the economy where multiple impacts are coincident. Robust and sustained mitigation measures are therefore required.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 对英国贫困的影响

我们使用微观模拟结合 COVID-19 对个人和家庭的影响模型来获得英国贫困家庭的预测。预测估计分为两个层次：英国的季度总计，2020 年所有季度；按地区、部门和家庭人口统计数据划分的 2020 年年度数据。在总体水平上，预计 2020 年第二季度的贫困状况将比非 COVID 反事实水平高出约三倍，并且在今年剩余时间里将大大高于非 COVID 情况。这种增加的贫困最初主要是由于对个体经营者的影响，随着休假计划的取消，也对失业者产生影响。对不同地区和部门的影响差异很大，不同家庭类型之间的差异也是如此。受影响最严重的行业是建筑和制造业，而伦敦及其紧密相连的地区（东南部和中部地区）受到的影响最为严重。单身成人家庭受害最深，不利影响随着家庭子女数量的增加而增加。对青年的影响仍然很高是一个特别令人担忧的迹象，预计 25-54 岁和老年人（75 岁及以上）的贫困率也将大幅增加。此外，预计多重影响同时发生的社会和经济部门将产生严重的不利影响。因此，需要采取强有力和持续的缓解措施。单身成人家庭受害最深，不利影响随着家庭子女数量的增加而增加。对青年的影响仍然很高是一个特别令人担忧的迹象，预计 25-54 岁和老年人（75 岁及以上）的贫困率也将大幅增加。此外，预计多重影响同时发生的社会和经济部门将产生严重的不利影响。因此，需要采取强有力和持续的缓解措施。单身成人家庭受害最深，不利影响随着家庭子女数量的增加而增加。对青年的影响仍然很高是一个特别令人担忧的迹象，预计 25-54 岁和老年人（75 岁及以上）的贫困率也将大幅增加。此外，预计多重影响同时发生的社会和经济部门将产生严重的不利影响。因此，需要采取强有力和持续的缓解措施。预计多重影响同时发生的社会和经济部门将产生严重的不利影响。因此，需要采取强有力和持续的缓解措施。预计多重影响同时发生的社会和经济部门将产生严重的不利影响。因此，需要采取强有力和持续的缓解措施。