How does voter turnout change as countries transition to democracy? Using district-level data from Egypt’s 2012 presidential election, we show that turnout was higher in more educated and urban districts—a stark reversal from voting patterns under the authoritarian Mubarak regime, when less educated and poorer areas were more likely to participate. However, this pattern weakened in the second round of the 2012 election, when the choice was restricted to two candidates who reflected Egypt’s primary pre-revolution political divide. Urban and educated districts experienced a decline in turnout and a rise in protest voting during the second round relative to the first, suggesting that key political groups were alienated from the electoral process. These results indicate that who participates in elections can shift quickly as institutions change, but this is conditional on the choice of candidates available to voters.

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转型中的投票：2012年埃及总统大选的参与和异化

随着国家过渡到民主，选民投票率会如何变化？根据埃及2012年总统大选的地区数据，我们显示，受过良好教育的城市地区的投票率更高–与威权主义穆巴拉克政权下的投票方式形成鲜明对比，当时受教育程度较低和较贫穷的地区更有可能参加选举。但是，这种模式在2012年大选的第二轮中减弱了，当时的选择仅限于反映埃及革命前主要政治分歧的两名候选人。与第一轮相比，第二轮选举中，市区和受过教育的地区的投票率有所下降，而抗议投票却有所增加，这表明主要政治集团已脱离选举进程。这些结果表明，参加选举的人可以随着机构的变化而迅速转变，