This article examines the sustainability of public debt in Bangladesh under alternative future scenarios based on simulation exercises for the period of FY2017 to FY2026. It adopts the debt-stabilizing primary balance approach (DPSBA) and International Monetary Fund/World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF). The findings of the former indicate that Bangladesh will be able to service its increasing public debt as long as its economic growth rate remains higher than the real interest rate payable on debt. Public debt also appears to be sustainable according to variables tested under the DSF. However, findings indicate that Bangladesh has been and would continue allocating an increasing share of its revenue to external debt repayment, creating a trade-off with investment in growth-oriented sectors. JEL Classification: H63, H68, H69, H81, G28

中文翻译：

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孟加拉国正在向债务压力滚滚吗？在近期外部资金流动的背景下对债务可持续性的探索

本文基于2017财年至2026财年的模拟演习，研究了孟加拉国在其他未来情景下的公共债务可持续性。它采用稳定债务的基本平衡方法（DPSBA）和国际货币基金组织/世界银行债务可持续性框架（DSF）。前者的调查结果表明，只要孟加拉国的经济增长率仍高于债务实际应付利率，它将能够偿还不断增加的公共债务。根据在DSF下测试的变量，公共债务也似乎是可持续的。但是，调查结果表明，孟加拉国一直并将继续将其收入中越来越大的份额分配给偿还外债，这与对增长型部门的投资之间存在着一种权衡。JEL分类：H63，H68，H69，H81，G28