This study establishes the hazard rate of exports from Kenya and identifies factors that explain the duration of exports using a discrete‐time random effects logit regression model. A difference‐in‐differences estimator is used to assess the effects of AGOA. Export data between Kenya and 176 partners over 21 years (1995–2016) is used. We find that first‐year survival rate is 39%. The median duration of Kenya’s exports is 1 year. AGOA enhances export survival, especially for apparels. COMESA also increases export survival but EAC has a dampening effect, even in SSA region. Differentiated products unlike capital‐intensive products improve export survival.

中文翻译：

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解释肯尼亚的出口期限

这项研究确定了肯尼亚出口的危险率，并使用离散时间随机影响对数回归模型确定了解释出口持续时间的因素。差异估计器用于评估AGOA的效果。使用了21年（1995-2016年）中肯尼亚与176个合作伙伴之间的出口数据。我们发现第一年生存率为39％。肯尼亚出口的平均期限为1年。AGOA可以提高出口生存率，尤其是服装。东南非共同市场也提高了出口生存率，但东非共同市场甚至在撒哈拉以南非洲地区也具有抑制作用。与资本密集型产品不同，差异化产品可提高出口生存率。