We measure the financial cycle of South Africa using three different methodologies. The financial cycle is identified using credit, house prices and equity prices as indicators, and estimated using traditional turning‐point analysis, frequency‐based filters and an unobserved components model‐based approach. We then consider the financial cycle’s main characteristics and examine its relationships with the business cycle. We confirm the presence of a financial cycle in South Africa that has a longer duration and a larger amplitude than the traditional business cycle. Developments in measures of credit and house prices are important indicators of the financial cycle, although the case for including equity prices in the measures is less certain. Periods where financial conditions are stressed are associated with peaks in the financial cycle, suggesting that the estimated financial cycle may have similar leading indicator properties to financial conditions or stress indices.

中文翻译：

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衡量南非的金融周期

我们使用三种不同的方法来衡量南非的金融周期。使用信贷，房价和股票价格作为指标来确定财务周期，并使用传统的转折点分析，基于频率的过滤器和基于未观察到的组件模型的方法进行估算。然后，我们考虑财务周期的主要特征，并检查其与业务周期的关系。我们确认南非存在一个金融周期，该周期比传统的经济周期更长，周期更长。信贷和房价衡量指标的发展是金融周期的重要指标，尽管将股票价格纳入衡量指标的理由尚不确定。财务状况受到压力的时期与财务周期的峰值相关，