This paper assesses the effect of US monetary policy on South Africa during the period 1990–2018. We separately analyse and compare the effect of conventional monetary policy, before the Global Financial Crisis, and unconventional monetary policy, after the US monetary policy reached the zero‐lower bound. Our impulse response function results indicate that monetary policy in South Africa responds mainly to local inflation, economic activity and financial conditions. While there is strong correlation between the global and South African financial cycle, the financial cycle is not transmitted to the real economy because of the sluggish response of industrial production and domestic credit, especially after the global financial crisis. We see this as an indication of the effects of structural issues to the real economy and constrained households’ balance sheet which has prevented the local economy to take advantage of low local interest rates and the global economic recovery after the crisis.

中文翻译：

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常规和非常规货币政策从美国溢出到南非

本文评估了1990年至2018年期间美国货币政策对南非的影响。我们分别分析和比较了全球货币危机之前的常规货币政策和美国货币政策达到零下限之后的非常规货币政策的效果。我们的冲激响应函数结果表明，南非的货币政策主要响应当地的通货膨胀，经济活动和金融状况。尽管全球和南非金融周期之间存在很强的相关性，但由于工业生产和国内信贷的反应迟钝，特别是在全球金融危机之后，金融周期并未传递给实体经济。