Previous studies that assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of South Africa assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper we violate that assumption and assess the asymmetric effects of the real rand‐dollar rate on the trade balance of 25 2‐digit industries that trade between South Africa and the U.S. We find short‐run asymmetric effects in a total of 19 industries but short‐run cumulative or impact asymmetric effects only on five industries. Short‐run asymmetric effects lasted into long‐run asymmetric effects on 14 industries. Further analysis revealed industries that will benefit from rand depreciation and those that will be hurt from rand appreciation.

中文翻译：

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南非-美国贸易与实际汇率：来自25个行业的不对称证据

先前评估汇率变化对南非贸易平衡的影响的研究认为，这种影响是对称的。在本文中，我们违反了这一假设，并评估了实际美元汇率对南非和美国之间交易的25个2位数字行业的贸易平衡的不对称影响。我们发现总共19个行业的短期不对称影响但是短期累积或影响不对称效应仅对五个行业产生影响。短期不对称效应持续演变成对14个行业的长期不对称效应。进一步的分析显示，将从兰特贬值中受益的行业以及将从兰特升值中受到损害的行业。