Do elections affect legislators' voting patterns? We investigate this question in the context of environmental policy in the US Congress. We theorize that since the general public is generally in favor of legislation protecting the environment, legislators have an incentive to favor the public over industry and vote for pro-environment legislation at election time. The argument is supported by analyses of data on environmental roll-call votes for the US Congress from 1970-2013 where we estimate the likelihood of casting a pro-environment as a function of the time to an election. While Democrats are generally more likely to cast a pro-environment vote before an election, this effect is much stronger for Republicans when the legislator won the previous election by a thinner margin. The election effect is maximized for candidates receiving substantial campaign contributions from the (anti-environment) oil and gas industry. Analysis of Twitter data confirms that Congress. members make pro-environmental statements and highlight their roll-call voting behavior during the election season. These results show that legislators do strategically adjust their voting behavior to favor the public immediate prior to an election.

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选举和政策反应：来自美国国会环境投票的证据

选举会影响立法者的投票模式吗？我们在美国国会的环境政策背景下调查这个问题。我们的理论是，由于公众普遍支持保护环境的立法，立法者有动力在选举时偏袒公众而不是工业并投票支持环保立法。该论点得到了对 1970 年至 2013 年美国国会环境唱名投票数据的分析的支持，在该分析中，我们估计了作为选举时间函数的亲环境投票的可能性。虽然民主党人通常更有可能在选举前投出支持环境的投票，但当立法者在上次选举中以微弱优势获胜时，这种影响对共和党人来说要强得多。对于从（反环境）石油和天然气行业获得大量竞选捐款的候选人，选举效果最大化。对 Twitter 数据的分析证实了国会。成员发表有利于环境的声明，并强调他们在选举季节的唱名投票行为。这些结果表明，立法者确实在选举前战略性地调整了他们的投票行为，以支持公众。