This paper inspects whether variable- and fixed-length moving averages (VMA and FMA), and trading range breakout (TRB) rules have prognostic capability and can earn profits superior to buy-and-hold plan, when applied on KSE-100 index of Pakistan stock market during the full sample period January 1, 1997 to December 31, 2013. Full sample results provided empirical evidence for VMA rule that it has significant predictive power and is able to generate profits superior to simple buy-and-hold plan even after inclusion of transaction costs. The highest mean buy returns yielded by VMA, FMA and TRB rules are seen in noncrises periods. The overall implication of this study is that traders in the Pakistan stock market can utilize this information to obtain excess returns on a regular basis.

中文翻译：

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巴基斯坦股市简单移动平均线和交易区间突破规则的可预测性和盈利能力

本文检验了可变长度和固定长度移动平均线（VMA 和 FMA）以及交易区间突破 (TRB) 规则在应用于 KSE-100巴基斯坦股票市场在 1997 年 1 月 1 日至 2013 年 12 月 31 日的全样本期间。全样本结果为 VMA 规则提供了经验证据，即它具有显着的预测能力，即使在包括交易成本。VMA、FMA 和 TRB 规则产生的最高平均买入回报出现在非危机时期。这项研究的总体意义是，巴基斯坦股票市场的交易者可以利用这些信息定期获得超额回报。