We examine investment in bank branches on the Indian subcontinent in 1939 and 1946. In 1947, the states of India and Pakistan were created from the erstwhile colony of British India. Partition was destabilizing to both economies. We use branch expansion as a proxy for entrepreneur’s pre-partition predictions of the future of these regions. Our results indicate there were no premonitions of economic dislocation. Banks tended to deepen their presence in regions which were already developed. But controlling for the level of 1931 development, branch placement was highest in exactly those regions, Bengal and the Punjab, which were to experience the greatest negative consequences from political division. After 1947, multiple banks failed; most failing banks were registered in the Punjab or Bengal region. In united India, businessmen saw as much promise in regions which were to become Pakistan as in regions which were to become India. After partition, the Pakistan regions were immediately more economically fragile. This event provides a general lesson. Economic integration had intensified over the years of British rule. The abrupt stop to integration harmed especially the smaller, less diversified region. Politicians should be wary of politically dividing regions which have evolved to function as integrated economic units.

中文翻译：

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期待独立，没有分裂的预感。1939 年至 1946 年印度次大陆银行分行扩张的教训

我们考察了 1939 年和 1946 年对印度次大陆银行分行的投资。1947 年，印度和巴基斯坦两国从英属印度的昔日殖民地建立。分裂破坏了两个经济体的稳定。我们使用分支机构扩张作为企业家对这些地区未来的预分区预测的代理。我们的结果表明没有经济混乱的预兆。银行倾向于在已经开发的地区深化其业务。但控制 1931 年的发展水平，在孟加拉和旁遮普这些地区，由于政治分裂而遭受最大的负面影响，分支安置最高。1947年后，多家银行倒闭；大多数倒闭的银行都在旁遮普或孟加拉地区注册。在统一的印度，商人在即将成为巴基斯坦的地区和即将成为印度的地区看到了同样多的希望。分裂后，巴基斯坦地区的经济立即变得更加脆弱。这个事件提供了一个普遍的教训。在英国统治的这些年里，经济一体化得到了加强。一体化的突然停止尤其损害了规模较小、多元化程度较低的地区。政治家应该警惕政治分裂的地区，这些地区已经演变为综合经济单位。多元化程度较低的地区。政治家应该警惕政治分裂的地区，这些地区已经演变为综合经济单位。多元化程度较低的地区。政治家应该警惕政治分裂的地区，这些地区已经演变为综合经济单位。